COMPLETE HISTORICAL DATA
│
Remove invalid duplicates
Define prediction moment
│
▼
SPLIT THE DATA
│
┌──────────────────┼──────────────────┐
│ │ │
▼ ▼ ▼
TRAINING SET VALIDATION SET TEST SET
70% 15% 15%
│ │ │
│ │ Keep sealed
▼ │ │
Learn preprocessing │ │
Learn model parameters │ │
│ │ │
└──────► Evaluate and tune │
│ │
Select final model │
│ │
└──────────────────►│
▼
ONE FINAL EVALUATION
│
▼
Production decision
Quality warning:
Wrong:
Split individual rows even though one customer has many rows.
Better:
Keep all rows belonging to one customer in one subset.
For chronological problems:
Past ─────────────────────────────────────────► Future
Training period → Validation period → Test period